Georgia vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Georgia 87.9%draw 1.3%10.8% UruguayUruguay 23.0%draw 1.3%75.7% GeorgiaGeorgia 82.0%draw 1.3%16.7% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Georgia v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Georgia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Uruguay and 44 Georgia, half of them between 4 Georgia and 28 Georgia, with the middle run at 13 Georgia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Georgia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Georgia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Georgia, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Georgia 1899, Uruguay 1520 — 379 points, favouring Georgia
Georgia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Georgia6–0–2Uruguay8 meetings, 2003 to 2026 · Georgia by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Uruguay 34–41 Georgia | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2022-11-06 | Georgia 34–18 Uruguay | — | Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena |
| 2019-09-29 | Georgia 33–7 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
| 2015-06-13 | Georgia 19–10 Uruguay | — | Avchala Stadium |
| 2013-06-11 | Georgia 27–3 Uruguay | — | Avchala Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.