Glasgow Warriors vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 71.4%draw 2.5%26.1% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Harlequins and 35 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 2 Glasgow Warriors and 21 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Harlequins 1542 — 407 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors0–0–2Harlequins2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Harlequins by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Harlequins 24–7 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-04-05 | Harlequins 28–24 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.