Glasgow Warriors vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 66.4%draw 2.5%31.1% La RochelleLa Rochelle 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 La Rochelle and 25 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 5 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours La Rochelle.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, La Rochelle 1748 — 44 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3La Rochelle4 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · La Rochelle by 4.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-22 | Glasgow Warriors 30–38 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2021-12-12 | La Rochelle 20–13 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2019-12-14 | Glasgow Warriors 7–12 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2019-12-07 | La Rochelle 24–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.