Glasgow Warriors vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 68.2%draw 2.5%29.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 61.0%draw 2.5%36.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 52.4%draw 2.5%45.1% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 La Rochelle and 28 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 2 La Rochelle and 16 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 6 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, La Rochelle 1820 — 129 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3La Rochelle4 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · La Rochelle by 4.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-22 | Glasgow Warriors 30–38 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2021-12-12 | La Rochelle 20–13 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2019-12-14 | Glasgow Warriors 7–12 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2019-12-07 | La Rochelle 24–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.