Glasgow Warriors vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 46.8%draw 2.5%50.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Leicester Tigers and 32 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 1 Glasgow Warriors and 20 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 149 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–0Leicester Tigers3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 32.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Glasgow Warriors 43–19 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Leicester Tigers 0–43 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-10-14 | Glasgow Warriors 42–13 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.