Glasgow Warriors vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 62.1%draw 2.5%35.4% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 51.4%draw 2.5%46.1% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Leicester Tigers and 26 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 4 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 48 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–0Leicester Tigers3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 32.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Glasgow Warriors 43–19 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2017-01-21 | Leicester Tigers 0–43 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-10-14 | Glasgow Warriors 42–13 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.