Glasgow Warriors vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 62.2%draw 2.5%35.3% LeinsterLeinster 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 44.0%draw 2.5%53.5% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leinster and 21 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 4 Leinster and 12 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 3 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-16 on a tight afternoon and 29-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Leinster 1915 — 34 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors6–1–15Leinster22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 11.6 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leinster by 18.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Glasgow Warriors 38–17 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Leinster 37–19 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Leinster 13–5 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-11 | Leinster 52–0 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-22 | Glasgow Warriors 43–25 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.