Glasgow Warriors vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 49.8%draw 2.5%47.7% LeinsterLeinster 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 40.2%draw 2.5%57.3% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Leinster and 25 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 1 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Leinster.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Leinster 1912 — 120 points, favouring Leinster
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors6–1–14Leinster21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 11.5 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leinster by 18.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Glasgow Warriors 38–17 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Leinster 37–19 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Leinster 13–5 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-11 | Leinster 52–0 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-10-22 | Glasgow Warriors 43–25 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.