Glasgow Warriors vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% LionsLions 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Lions and 28 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 6 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Lions.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Lions 1678 — 113 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–3Lions6 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Lions by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Lions 54–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Glasgow Warriors 42–0 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Lions 44–21 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Glasgow Warriors 31–21 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-02-25 | Lions 35–24 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.