Glasgow Warriors vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors host Lions on Friday 30 October at Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow, so Glasgow Warriors are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Glasgow Warriors 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% LionsLions 46.3%draw 2.5%51.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Lions and 33 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 2 Glasgow Warriors and 22 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-13 on a tight afternoon and 34-24 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Lions 1664 — 285 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–3Lions6 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Lions by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Lions 54–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Glasgow Warriors 42–0 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Lions 44–21 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Glasgow Warriors 31–21 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-02-25 | Lions 35–24 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.