Glasgow Warriors vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% LyonLyon 36.4%draw 2.5%61.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Lyon and 33 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Lyon.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Lyon 1429 — 363 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors2–0–2Lyon4 meetings, 2018 to 2022 · Lyon by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-07 | Lyon 35–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2020-12-19 | Glasgow Warriors 0–28 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2018-12-15 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2018-12-08 | Lyon 22–42 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.