Glasgow Warriors vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% LyonLyon 35.6%draw 2.5%61.9% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Lyon and 33 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 3 Glasgow Warriors and 21 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Lyon 1487 — 462 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors2–0–1Lyon3 meetings, 2018 to 2022 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-07 | Lyon 35–27 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2018-12-15 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2018-12-08 | Lyon 22–42 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.