Glasgow Warriors vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 57.4%draw 2.5%40.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 65.0%draw 2.5%32.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 44.8%draw 2.5%52.7% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Montpellier Herault and 20 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 2 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 90 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3Montpellier Herault4 meetings, 2015 to 2021 · Montpellier Herault by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-02 | Montpellier Herault 26–21 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-12-16 | Montpellier Herault 36–26 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-12-08 | Glasgow Warriors 22–29 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2015-01-18 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.