Glasgow Warriors vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Montpellier Herault and 21 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 6 Montpellier Herault and 11 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 2 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 23 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3Montpellier Herault4 meetings, 2015 to 2021 · Montpellier Herault by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-02 | Montpellier Herault 26–21 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-12-16 | Montpellier Herault 36–26 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2017-12-08 | Glasgow Warriors 22–29 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2015-01-18 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.