Glasgow Warriors vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% MunsterMunster 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Munster and 29 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 1 Glasgow Warriors and 18 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 8 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 32-24 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Munster 1728 — 221 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors10–0–10Munster20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Glasgow Warriors by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Munster 20–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2026-01-30 | Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-03-21 | Glasgow Warriors 28–25 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-06-15 | Munster 10–17 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2023-12-01 | Munster 40–29 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.