Glasgow Warriors vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% MunsterMunster 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Munster and 29 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 6 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Munster.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Munster 1670 — 122 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors9–0–10Munster19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Glasgow Warriors 31–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-03-21 | Glasgow Warriors 28–25 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-06-15 | Munster 10–17 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2023-12-01 | Munster 40–29 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2023-05-06 | Glasgow Warriors 5–14 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.