Glasgow Warriors vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 57.9%draw 2.5%39.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Northampton Saints and 27 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 4 Northampton Saints and 15 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 3 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Northampton Saints 1957 — 8 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors0–0–3Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Northampton Saints by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | Glasgow Warriors 19–28 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-01-17 | Northampton Saints 19–15 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-11-21 | Glasgow Warriors 15–26 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.