Glasgow Warriors vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 52.2%draw 2.5%45.3% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 41.7%draw 2.5%55.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Northampton Saints and 17 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 1 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Northampton Saints 1918 — 126 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors0–0–3Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Northampton Saints by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | Glasgow Warriors 19–28 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-01-17 | Northampton Saints 19–15 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2015-11-21 | Glasgow Warriors 15–26 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.