Glasgow Warriors vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 86.9%draw 2.5%10.6% PerpignanPerpignan 31.3%draw 2.5%66.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 37 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 4 Glasgow Warriors and 25 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 12 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Perpignan 1424 — 526 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors2–0–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Perpignan 26–40 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2022-12-16 | Glasgow Warriors 26–18 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.