Glasgow Warriors vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 83.4%draw 2.5%14.1% PerpignanGlasgow Warriors 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 37 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 12 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Perpignan.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Perpignan 1346 — 446 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors2–0–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Perpignan 26–40 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2022-12-16 | Glasgow Warriors 26–18 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.