Glasgow Warriors vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% Racing 92Racing 92 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Racing 92 and 33 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 1 Glasgow Warriors and 21 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Racing 92 1632 — 318 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors4–0–1Racing 925 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | Glasgow Warriors 29–19 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-12-16 | Glasgow Warriors 23–7 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-12-10 | Racing 92 14–23 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2016-01-23 | Glasgow Warriors 22–5 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park |
| 2016-01-09 | Racing 92 34–10 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.