Glasgow Warriors vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% Racing 92Racing 92 54.4%draw 2.5%43.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Racing 92 and 27 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 7 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Racing 92.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Racing 92 1707 — 85 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors4–0–1Racing 925 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | Glasgow Warriors 29–19 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-12-16 | Glasgow Warriors 23–7 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2016-12-10 | Racing 92 14–23 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2016-01-23 | Glasgow Warriors 22–5 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park |
| 2016-01-09 | Racing 92 34–10 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.