Glasgow Warriors vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% Sale SharksSale Sharks 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Sale Sharks and 33 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Sale Sharks 1558 — 234 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors4–0–0Sale Sharks4 meetings, 2019 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Sale Sharks 21–26 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-12-07 | Glasgow Warriors 38–19 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2020-01-18 | Sale Sharks 7–45 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2019-11-16 | Glasgow Warriors 13–7 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.