Glasgow Warriors vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 86.2%draw 2.5%11.3% ScarletsScarlets 23.3%draw 2.5%74.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 35 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 3 Glasgow Warriors and 23 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 12 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 35-23 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Scarlets 1273 — 676 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors10–0–8Scarlets18 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Glasgow Warriors by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-11-29 | Glasgow Warriors 17–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Scarlets 3–45 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-04-29 | Scarlets 17–35 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-04-14 | Glasgow Warriors 12–9 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.