Glasgow Warriors vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% ScarletsScarlets 29.4%draw 2.5%68.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 75.4%draw 2.5%22.1% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scarlets and 34 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 10 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Scarlets.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Scarlets 1334 — 458 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors10–0–8Scarlets18 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Glasgow Warriors by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Scarlets 23–0 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-11-29 | Glasgow Warriors 17–15 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Scarlets 3–45 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-04-29 | Scarlets 17–35 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-04-14 | Glasgow Warriors 12–9 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.