Glasgow Warriors vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 68.2%draw 2.5%29.3% SharksSharks 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sharks and 31 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 7 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Sharks.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Sharks 1613 — 179 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–2Sharks5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Glasgow Warriors 35–19 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Sharks 28–24 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-10-15 | Sharks 40–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2021-10-02 | Glasgow Warriors 35–24 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.