Glasgow Warriors vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% SharksSharks 52.9%draw 2.5%44.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 60.4%draw 2.5%37.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Sharks and 32 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between level and 19 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 8 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 32-24 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Sharks 1746 — 203 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors3–0–2Sharks5 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Glasgow Warriors 35–19 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Sharks 28–24 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Glasgow Warriors 21–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-10-15 | Sharks 40–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2021-10-02 | Glasgow Warriors 35–24 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.