Glasgow Warriors vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 65.6%draw 2.5%31.9% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 44.4%draw 2.5%53.1% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 25 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 5 Stade Toulousain and 13 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 3 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 43 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–0Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Glasgow Warriors 28–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.