Glasgow Warriors vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% StormersStormers 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 50.2%draw 2.5%47.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stormers and 24 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 3 Stormers and 14 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 4 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-16 on a tight afternoon and 30-26 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Stormers 1845 — 104 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors5–0–2Stormers7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-05-30 | Glasgow Warriors 36–18 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Stormers 17–28 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Glasgow Warriors 27–10 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-11-03 | Glasgow Warriors 20–9 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.