Glasgow Warriors vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% StormersStormers 57.9%draw 2.5%39.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 26 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 4 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Stormers.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Stormers 1716 — 76 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors5–0–2Stormers7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stormers 48–12 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-05-30 | Glasgow Warriors 36–18 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Stormers 17–28 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Glasgow Warriors 27–10 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-11-03 | Glasgow Warriors 20–9 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.