Glasgow Warriors vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% ToulonToulon 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 69.8%draw 2.5%27.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Toulon and 32 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Toulon.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Toulon 1435 — 357 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Toulon by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Glasgow Warriors 19–22 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-12-15 | Toulon 30–29 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-01-19 | Glasgow Warriors 29–5 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-05-19 | Glasgow Warriors 19–43 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Aviva Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.