Glasgow Warriors vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% ToulonToulon 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Glasgow Warriors v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Toulon and 32 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 1 Glasgow Warriors and 20 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Toulon 1663 — 286 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Toulon by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Glasgow Warriors 19–22 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-12-15 | Toulon 30–29 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-01-19 | Glasgow Warriors 29–5 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-05-19 | Glasgow Warriors 19–43 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Aviva Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.