Glasgow Warriors vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Glasgow Warriors 88.7%draw 2.5%8.8% ZebreZebre 13.6%draw 2.5%83.9% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 86.7%draw 2.5%10.8% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Glasgow Warriors, half of them between 5 Glasgow Warriors and 27 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 14 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Glasgow Warriors winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Glasgow Warriors, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Glasgow Warriors 1949, Zebre 1071 — 879 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors23–0–0Zebre23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 27.6 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Glasgow Warriors by 23.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Zebre 21–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-01-03 | Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Zebre 6–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-11 | Glasgow Warriors 33–3 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-05-31 | Glasgow Warriors 38–26 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.