Glasgow Warriors vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Glasgow Warriors 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% ZebreZebre 21.5%draw 2.5%76.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Glasgow Warriors wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 39 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 12 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Glasgow Warriors are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Glasgow Warriors, negative favours Zebre.
Glasgow Warriors 1792, Zebre 1309 — 483 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Glasgow Warriors22–0–0Zebre22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 28.3 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Glasgow Warriors by 23.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Zebre 21–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-01-03 | Glasgow Warriors 47–10 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Zebre 6–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-10-11 | Glasgow Warriors 33–3 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Zebre 9–40 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.