Gloucester Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% HarlequinsHarlequins 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 61.2%draw 2.5%36.3% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Harlequins and 29 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between level and 17 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Harlequins 1542 — 142 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby9–1–14Harlequins24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 1.2 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Gloucester Rugby by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Gloucester Rugby 48–0 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2026-03-21 | Harlequins 19–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-11-29 | Gloucester Rugby 26–15 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-05-10 | Harlequins 38–19 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-12-20 | Gloucester Rugby 14–0 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.