Gloucester Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% HarlequinsHarlequins 64.2%draw 2.5%33.3% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 43.4%draw 2.5%54.1% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Harlequins and 19 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Harlequins.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Harlequins 1668 — 148 points, favouring Harlequins
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby8–2–14Harlequins24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Harlequins by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Harlequins by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Harlequins 19–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-11-29 | Gloucester Rugby 26–15 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-05-10 | Harlequins 38–19 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-12-20 | Gloucester Rugby 14–0 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2023-12-30 | Harlequins 32–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.