Gloucester Rugby vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 59.9%draw 2.5%37.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 67.8%draw 2.5%29.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 La Rochelle and 24 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 4 La Rochelle and 13 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 4 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, La Rochelle 1820 — 136 points, favouring La Rochelle
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby4–0–3La Rochelle7 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | La Rochelle 29–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2021-04-02 | Gloucester Rugby 16–27 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-04-22 | La Rochelle 14–16 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-12-17 | La Rochelle 42–13 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-12-08 | Gloucester Rugby 35–14 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.