Gloucester Rugby vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 47.6%draw 2.5%49.9% La RochelleLa Rochelle 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 La Rochelle and 14 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours La Rochelle.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, La Rochelle 1748 — 228 points, favouring La Rochelle
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby4–0–3La Rochelle7 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | La Rochelle 29–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2021-04-02 | Gloucester Rugby 16–27 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-04-22 | La Rochelle 14–16 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-12-17 | La Rochelle 42–13 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-12-08 | Gloucester Rugby 35–14 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.