Gloucester Rugby vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 75.0%draw 2.5%22.5% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 29.9%draw 2.5%67.6% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Leicester Tigers and 14 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 320 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby5–0–18Leicester Tigers23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 7.7 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leicester Tigers by 11.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Gloucester Rugby 17–36 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Villa Park |
| 2025-12-19 | Leicester Tigers 45–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Gloucester Rugby 38–31 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-10-20 | Leicester Tigers 29–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-03-22 | Leicester Tigers 25–27 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.