Gloucester Rugby vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 60.2%draw 2.5%37.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Leicester Tigers and 21 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 6 Leicester Tigers and 12 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 116 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby5–0–19Leicester Tigers24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 7.6 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leicester Tigers by 11.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Leicester Tigers 38–31 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2026-03-28 | Gloucester Rugby 17–36 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Villa Park |
| 2025-12-19 | Leicester Tigers 45–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Gloucester Rugby 38–31 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-10-20 | Leicester Tigers 29–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.