Gloucester Rugby vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 71.9%draw 2.5%25.6% LyonLyon 47.4%draw 2.5%50.1% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 61.6%draw 2.5%35.9% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Lyon and 29 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 1 Lyon and 17 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Lyon 1487 — 197 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–2Lyon2 meetings, 2020 to 2021 · Lyon by 25.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-10 | Lyon 19–13 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2020-12-13 | Lyon 55–10 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.