Gloucester Rugby vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 27.9%draw 2.5%69.6% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Montpellier Herault and 13 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 362 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby2–0–1Montpellier Herault3 meetings, 2019 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Montpellier Herault 17–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2020-01-11 | Gloucester Rugby 29–6 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2019-11-24 | Montpellier Herault 30–27 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.