Gloucester Rugby vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 33.6%draw 2.5%63.9% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Montpellier Herault and 23 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 6 Montpellier Herault and 11 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 288 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Gloucester Rugby are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Montpellier Herault are on 48.1%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby2–0–1Montpellier Herault3 meetings, 2019 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Montpellier Herault 17–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2020-01-11 | Gloucester Rugby 29–6 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2019-11-24 | Montpellier Herault 30–27 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.