Gloucester Rugby vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 62.1%draw 2.5%35.4% MunsterMunster 61.7%draw 2.5%35.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Munster and 22 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 5 Munster and 12 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Munster 1728 — 44 points, favouring Munster
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–3Munster3 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Munster by 22.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Munster 31–3 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Pairc Ui Chaoimh |
| 2019-01-11 | Gloucester Rugby 15–41 Munster | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2018-10-20 | Munster 36–22 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.