Gloucester Rugby vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 48.6%draw 2.5%48.9% MunsterMunster 70.5%draw 2.5%27.0% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 37.6%draw 2.5%59.9% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Munster and 16 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Munster.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Munster 1670 — 150 points, favouring Munster
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–3Munster3 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Munster by 22.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Munster 31–3 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Pairc Ui Chaoimh |
| 2019-01-11 | Gloucester Rugby 15–41 Munster | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2018-10-20 | Munster 36–22 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.