Gloucester Rugby vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Northampton Saints host Gloucester Rugby on Saturday 31 October at cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens, Northampton, so Northampton Saints are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Gloucester Rugby 51.1%draw 2.5%46.4% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 34.6%draw 2.5%62.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Northampton Saints v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Northampton Saints wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Gloucester Rugby and 30 Northampton Saints, half of them between level and 18 Northampton Saints, with the middle run at 8 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Northampton Saints are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Northampton Saints winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Northampton Saints, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Northampton Saints 1957, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 273 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Northampton Saints are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby9–1–13Northampton Saints23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Northampton Saints by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Northampton Saints 36–32 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-10-05 | Gloucester Rugby 35–37 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-05-31 | Gloucester Rugby 41–26 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-11-30 | Northampton Saints 17–25 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-05-11 | Northampton Saints 90–0 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.