Gloucester Rugby vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 25.6%draw 2.5%71.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 10 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Northampton Saints 1918 — 398 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby7–2–13Northampton Saints22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 3.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Northampton Saints by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Northampton Saints 36–32 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-10-05 | Gloucester Rugby 35–37 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-05-11 | Northampton Saints 90–0 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2023-12-23 | Gloucester Rugby 29–31 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2023-02-25 | Northampton Saints 41–34 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.