Gloucester Rugby vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% PauPau 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Pau and 25 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 4 Pau and 14 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Pau 1818 — 134 points, favouring Pau
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–2Pau2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Pau by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-19 | Gloucester Rugby 24–34 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-10-12 | Pau 27–21 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.