Gloucester Rugby vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 44.1%draw 2.5%53.4% PauPau 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Pau and 15 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Pau.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Pau 1640 — 120 points, favouring Pau
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–2Pau2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Pau by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-19 | Gloucester Rugby 24–34 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-10-12 | Pau 27–21 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.