Gloucester Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sale Sharks and 22 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Sale Sharks 1558 — 38 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby10–0–13Sale Sharks23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Sale Sharks by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Gloucester Rugby 21–15 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-09-25 | Sale Sharks 27–10 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-01-04 | Gloucester Rugby 36–20 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-10-04 | Sale Sharks 31–27 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-01-28 | Gloucester Rugby 32–20 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.