Gloucester Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 75.2%draw 2.5%22.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 49.3%draw 2.5%48.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sale Sharks and 29 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 1 Gloucester Rugby and 18 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 8 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Sale Sharks 1504 — 180 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby10–0–13Sale Sharks23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Sale Sharks by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Gloucester Rugby 21–15 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-09-25 | Sale Sharks 27–10 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-01-04 | Gloucester Rugby 36–20 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-10-04 | Sale Sharks 31–27 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-01-28 | Gloucester Rugby 32–20 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.