Gloucester Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% SaracensSaracens 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Saracens and 19 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 6 Saracens and 10 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Saracens 1861 — 177 points, favouring Saracens
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby6–0–17Saracens23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Saracens by 8.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Saracens 30–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-12-27 | Gloucester Rugby 21–30 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-04-19 | Saracens 36–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Gloucester Rugby 26–35 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-04-20 | Saracens 46–24 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.