Gloucester Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 42.9%draw 2.5%54.6% SaracensSaracens 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Saracens and 16 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Saracens.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Saracens 1802 — 282 points, favouring Saracens
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby6–0–17Saracens23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Saracens by 8.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Saracens 30–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-12-27 | Gloucester Rugby 21–30 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-04-19 | Saracens 36–14 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Gloucester Rugby 26–35 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-04-20 | Saracens 46–24 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.