Gloucester Rugby vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% ScarletsScarlets 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 31 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Scarlets.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Scarlets 1334 — 186 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby1–0–0Scarlets1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | Gloucester Rugby 31–7 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.