Gloucester Rugby vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% SharksSharks 68.2%draw 2.5%29.3% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sharks and 18 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Sharks.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Sharks 1613 — 93 points, favouring Sharks
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–1Sharks1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Sharks by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-24 | Gloucester Rugby 22–36 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.