Gloucester Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 32.1%draw 2.5%65.4% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 15 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 9 Stade Toulousain and 7 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-21 on a tight afternoon and 32-32 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 308 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Stade Toulousain are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Gloucester Rugby are on 47.7%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–2Stade Toulousain2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Stade Toulousain by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-19 | Stade Toulousain 35–14 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2019-11-15 | Gloucester Rugby 20–25 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.