Gloucester Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 37.8%draw 2.5%59.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 28.6%draw 2.5%68.9% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Stade Toulousain and 12 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 343 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–2Stade Toulousain2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Stade Toulousain by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-19 | Stade Toulousain 35–14 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2019-11-15 | Gloucester Rugby 20–25 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.