Gloucester Rugby vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% ToulonToulon 57.3%draw 2.5%40.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Toulon and 29 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 2 Toulon and 16 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 6 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Toulon 1663 — 21 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Toulon by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Gloucester Rugby 14–31 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.