Gloucester Rugby vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% ToulonToulon 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 52.5%draw 2.5%45.0% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Toulon and 27 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 4 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Gloucester Rugby, negative favours Toulon.
Gloucester Rugby 1520, Toulon 1435 — 85 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Toulon by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Gloucester Rugby 14–31 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.