Gloucester Rugby vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% VannesVannes 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 71.7%draw 2.5%25.8% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 38 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 3 Gloucester Rugby and 25 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 12 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Vannes 1280 — 404 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby0–0–1Vannes1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Vannes by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Vannes 43–19 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.