Gloucester Rugby vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby 85.8%draw 2.5%11.7% ZebreZebre 22.3%draw 2.5%75.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 40 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 4 Gloucester Rugby and 26 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 14 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Zebre 1071 — 614 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Gloucester Rugby4–0–0Zebre4 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Gloucester Rugby by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-16 | Gloucester Rugby 69–12 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-12-09 | Zebre 26–33 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2016-01-23 | Zebre 11–14 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2015-11-14 | Gloucester Rugby 23–10 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.