Harlequins vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% La RochelleLa Rochelle 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 43.0%draw 2.5%54.5% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 La Rochelle and 21 Harlequins, with the middle run at 2 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours La Rochelle.
Harlequins 1668, La Rochelle 1748 — 80 points, favouring La Rochelle
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–2La Rochelle3 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | La Rochelle 17–27 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2018-01-21 | La Rochelle 16–7 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2017-10-14 | Harlequins 27–34 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.