Harlequins vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 46.0%draw 2.5%51.5% La RochelleLa Rochelle 78.5%draw 2.5%19.0% HarlequinsHarlequins 31.8%draw 2.5%65.7% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 La Rochelle and 16 Harlequins, half of them between 9 La Rochelle and 7 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Harlequins 1542, La Rochelle 1820 — 278 points, favouring La Rochelle
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–2La Rochelle3 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | La Rochelle 17–27 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2018-01-21 | La Rochelle 16–7 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2017-10-14 | Harlequins 27–34 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.