Harlequins vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% HarlequinsHarlequins 40.2%draw 2.5%57.3% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leicester Tigers and 19 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Harlequins 1668, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 172 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins8–2–13Leicester Tigers23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Leicester Tigers by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Harlequins 7–34 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-10-04 | Leicester Tigers 29–19 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Leicester Tigers 40–7 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Harlequins 34–34 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-01-26 | Harlequins 19–20 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.