Harlequins vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 52.0%draw 2.5%45.5% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% HarlequinsHarlequins 35.3%draw 2.5%62.2% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Leicester Tigers and 21 Harlequins, half of them between 6 Leicester Tigers and 10 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Harlequins 1542, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 258 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins8–2–13Leicester Tigers23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Leicester Tigers by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Harlequins 7–34 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-10-04 | Leicester Tigers 29–19 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Leicester Tigers 40–7 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Harlequins 34–34 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-01-26 | Harlequins 19–20 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.