Harlequins vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 35.4%draw 2.5%62.1% LeinsterLeinster 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% HarlequinsHarlequins 24.8%draw 2.5%72.7% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Leinster and 13 Harlequins, half of them between 14 Leinster and 4 Harlequins, with the middle run at 4 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Harlequins 1542, Leinster 1915 — 373 points, favouring Leinster
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins0–0–2Leinster2 meetings, 2025 to 2025 · Leinster by 39.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Leinster 45–28 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-04-05 | Leinster 62–0 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Croke Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.