Harlequins vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% HarlequinsHarlequins 38.0%draw 2.5%59.5% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Montpellier Herault and 19 Harlequins, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Harlequins 1668, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 214 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins2–0–3Montpellier Herault5 meetings, 2015 to 2022 · Montpellier Herault by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-16 | Harlequins 33–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2022-04-10 | Montpellier Herault 40–26 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2016-05-13 | Harlequins 19–26 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2016-01-22 | Montpellier Herault 42–9 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2015-11-12 | Harlequins 41–18 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.