Harlequins vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 24.9%draw 2.5%72.6% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Montpellier Herault and 14 Harlequins, half of them between 12 Montpellier Herault and 5 Harlequins, with the middle run at 3 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Harlequins 1542, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 430 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins2–0–3Montpellier Herault5 meetings, 2015 to 2022 · Montpellier Herault by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-16 | Harlequins 33–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2022-04-10 | Montpellier Herault 40–26 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2016-05-13 | Harlequins 19–26 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2016-01-22 | Montpellier Herault 42–9 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2015-11-12 | Harlequins 41–18 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.