Harlequins vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Northampton Saints and 16 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Harlequins 1668, Northampton Saints 1918 — 250 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins10–0–12Northampton Saints22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Harlequins by 0.3 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Northampton Saints by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Harlequins 38–31 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2026-01-03 | Northampton Saints 66–21 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-01-24 | Harlequins 22–19 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-10-04 | Northampton Saints 33–29 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-04-27 | Harlequins 41–32 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.