Harlequins vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% HarlequinsHarlequins 26.0%draw 2.5%71.5% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Northampton Saints and 15 Harlequins, half of them between 10 Northampton Saints and 6 Harlequins, with the middle run at 2 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Harlequins 1542, Northampton Saints 1957 — 415 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins10–0–13Northampton Saints23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Northampton Saints by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Harlequins 38–31 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2026-01-03 | Northampton Saints 66–21 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-01-24 | Harlequins 22–19 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-10-04 | Northampton Saints 33–29 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-04-27 | Harlequins 41–32 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.