Harlequins vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 57.1%draw 2.5%40.4% Racing 92Racing 92 70.7%draw 2.5%26.8% HarlequinsHarlequins 41.7%draw 2.5%55.8% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Racing 92 and 20 Harlequins, half of them between 5 Racing 92 and 11 Harlequins, with the middle run at 2 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Harlequins 1542, Racing 92 1632 — 90 points, favouring Racing 92
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins2–0–3Racing 925 meetings, 2020 to 2024 · Racing 92 by 9.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Racing 92 23–12 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2023-12-10 | Racing 92 28–31 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2023-01-15 | Racing 92 30–29 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2022-12-18 | Harlequins 14–10 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2020-12-20 | Harlequins 7–49 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.