Harlequins vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% Racing 92Racing 92 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% HarlequinsHarlequins 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Racing 92 and 22 Harlequins, with the middle run at 3 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Racing 92.
Harlequins 1668, Racing 92 1707 — 40 points, favouring Racing 92
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins2–0–3Racing 925 meetings, 2020 to 2024 · Racing 92 by 9.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Racing 92 23–12 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2023-12-10 | Racing 92 28–31 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2023-01-15 | Racing 92 30–29 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2022-12-18 | Harlequins 14–10 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2020-12-20 | Harlequins 7–49 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.