Harlequins vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 61.5%draw 2.5%36.0% Sale SharksSale Sharks 68.0%draw 2.5%29.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sale Sharks and 20 Harlequins, half of them between 5 Sale Sharks and 11 Harlequins, with the middle run at 3 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Harlequins 1542, Sale Sharks 1504 — 38 points, favouring Harlequins
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins9–0–17Sale Sharks26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 4.8 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Sale Sharks by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Sale Sharks 28–24 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2026-04-25 | Harlequins 33–52 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2026-04-04 | Harlequins 17–26 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-12-26 | Sale Sharks 43–17 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Harlequins 29–43 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.