Harlequins vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 69.2%draw 2.5%28.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 58.5%draw 2.5%39.0% HarlequinsHarlequins 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Sale Sharks and 23 Harlequins, with the middle run at 4 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Harlequins 1668, Sale Sharks 1558 — 109 points, favouring Harlequins
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins9–0–16Sale Sharks25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 4.8 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Sale Sharks by 6.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Harlequins 33–52 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2026-04-04 | Harlequins 17–26 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-12-26 | Sale Sharks 43–17 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Harlequins 29–43 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-09-22 | Sale Sharks 12–11 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.