Harlequins vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins host Saracens on Sunday 25 October at Twickenham Stoop, London, so Harlequins are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Harlequins 47.0%draw 2.5%50.5% SaracensSaracens 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% HarlequinsHarlequins 31.3%draw 2.5%66.2% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Saracens and 16 Harlequins, half of them between 8 Saracens and 7 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Harlequins 1542, Saracens 1861 — 319 points, favouring Saracens
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins7–0–15Saracens22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 7.6 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Saracens by 10.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Saracens 26–12 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-10-12 | Harlequins 20–14 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-03-22 | Saracens 12–23 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 2024-10-13 | Harlequins 17–10 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-03-23 | Saracens 52–7 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.