Harlequins vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 47.5%draw 2.5%50.0% SharksSharks 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% HarlequinsHarlequins 34.6%draw 2.5%62.9% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sharks and 17 Harlequins, half of them between 8 Sharks and 7 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Harlequins 1542, Sharks 1746 — 204 points, favouring Sharks
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–1Sharks2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Harlequins by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Harlequins 39–29 Sharks | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2022-12-10 | Sharks 39–31 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.