Harlequins vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 69.1%draw 2.5%28.4% HarlequinsHarlequins 40.9%draw 2.5%56.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 23 Harlequins, with the middle run at 2 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Harlequins, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Harlequins 1668, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 108 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Harlequins by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-22 | Stade Francais Paris 27–17 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2016-10-13 | Harlequins 43–21 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.