Harlequins vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 53.3%draw 2.5%44.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% HarlequinsHarlequins 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Francais Paris and 20 Harlequins, half of them between 7 Stade Francais Paris and 10 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Harlequins 1542, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 189 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Harlequins by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-22 | Stade Francais Paris 27–17 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2016-10-13 | Harlequins 43–21 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.