Harlequins vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 35.5%draw 2.5%62.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% HarlequinsHarlequins 24.0%draw 2.5%73.5% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Stade Toulousain and 13 Harlequins, half of them between 13 Stade Toulousain and 5 Harlequins, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Harlequins 1542, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 450 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins0–0–2Stade Toulousain2 meetings, 2023 to 2024 · Stade Toulousain by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-05 | Stade Toulousain 38–26 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-12-17 | Harlequins 19–47 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.