Harlequins vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 44.0%draw 2.5%53.5% StormersStormers 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% HarlequinsHarlequins 30.2%draw 2.5%67.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stormers and 17 Harlequins, half of them between 9 Stormers and 7 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Harlequins 1542, Stormers 1845 — 303 points, favouring Stormers
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins2–0–1Stormers3 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Harlequins by 28.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Harlequins 61–10 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-12-14 | Harlequins 53–16 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2023-04-01 | Stormers 32–28 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.