Harlequins vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% ToulonToulon 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% HarlequinsHarlequins 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Toulon and 20 Harlequins, half of them between 7 Toulon and 10 Harlequins, with the middle run at 1 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Harlequins 1542, Toulon 1663 — 121 points, favouring Toulon
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Toulon by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Toulon 33–21 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.