Harlequins vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Harlequins 84.4%draw 2.5%13.1% VannesVannes 43.0%draw 2.5%54.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Harlequins v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Harlequins wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 36 Harlequins, half of them between 3 Harlequins and 23 Harlequins, with the middle run at 11 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Harlequins are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Harlequins winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Harlequins, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Harlequins 1542, Vannes 1280 — 262 points, favouring Harlequins
Harlequins are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Harlequins1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Harlequins by 38.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Harlequins 57–19 Vannes | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.