Highlanders vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Highlanders 23.3%draw 2.5%74.2% HurricanesHurricanes 86.5%draw 2.5%11.0% HighlandersHighlanders 16.9%draw 2.5%80.6% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Hurricanes and 10 Highlanders, with the middle run at 7 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Highlanders, negative favours Hurricanes.
Highlanders 1328, Hurricanes 1864 — 536 points, favouring Hurricanes
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders4–0–19Hurricanes23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 10.7 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Hurricanes by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Hurricanes 45–28 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-03-20 | Highlanders 7–50 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | Hurricanes 24–20 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-03-14 | Highlanders 18–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Hurricanes 41–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.