Highlanders vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Highlanders 25.8%draw 2.5%71.7% HurricanesHurricanes 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% HighlandersHighlanders 18.0%draw 2.5%79.5% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Highlanders v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Hurricanes and 10 Highlanders, half of them between 17 Hurricanes and 1 Highlanders, with the middle run at 7 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-18 on a tight afternoon and 37-30 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Highlanders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Highlanders, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Highlanders 1314, Hurricanes 1912 — 598 points, favouring Hurricanes
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders4–0–19Hurricanes23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 10.7 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Hurricanes by 17.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Hurricanes 45–28 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-03-20 | Highlanders 7–50 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | Hurricanes 24–20 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-03-14 | Highlanders 18–20 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Hurricanes 41–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.